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Why is the animating spirit of the Arab Spring taking hold in Russia?

Globalist Perspective > Global Society
Is Russian Winter Turning Into Spring?
 

By César Chelala | Friday, January 13, 2012
 

Recent weeks have witnessed ordinary Russians taking to the streets to vent their frustrations with their country's rulers. As César Chelala writes, it is highly improbable that Vladimir Putin will relinquish his grip on power. However, it was also considered unlikely a year ago that the Arab Spring would engulf the Arab world to the extent that it has.


ussia cannot be understood with the mind

Or measured with a common yardstick,

She has a peculiar character —

In Russia, one can only believe.

Thus wrote Fyodor Ivanovich Tyutchev (1803-1873), considered one of the last three great Romantic poets in Russia. Perhaps Prime Minister Vladimir Putin should have remembered those words when he dismissed the reaction of the Russian people to the last parliamentary elections in the country, which the people widely considered to have been rigged.

In terms of corruption, Russia now ranks on par with Cambodia, Guinea-Bissau and the Central African Republic.

Although Russia under Mr. Putin, and his designated successor Dmitry Medvedev, has achieved progress in several areas — incomes have increased, there are more consumer goods available, and people are free to travel — the tens of thousands of people demonstrating in the streets were doing so against what they rightly believe are Putin’s intentions to remain in power indefinitely through rigged elections.

People were also reacting to what they saw as widespread corruption under Putin. Over the past decade, one in six businessmen in Russia has been prosecuted for an alleged economic crime. In addition, people feel that the state has failed to provide ordinary citizens adequate health care, good education, security and justice.

In Russia, words and symbols often count more than reality. And Putin has repeatedly tried to use symbols to gather support for his policies. One of those symbols has been the use of Russia as an isolated and besieged fortress surrounded by powerful enemies. One of the most powerful enemies was the United States, whose anti-missile system he portrayed as an existential threat to Russia, a point of view that was strengthened by Dmitry Medvedev’s bellicose statements.

Two important factors seem to have triggered the people’s fury. One was the acknowledgment by Putin that his job swap with Medvedev had already been planned long ago — and the other was the obviously manipulated elections.

Proud of their past, Russians are also eager to be able to express freely their political wishes.

Interestingly, the popular demonstrations against Putin and the government are taking place not only in Moscow and St. Petersburg, but also in smaller cities around the country. Putin tried to dismiss the significance of the demonstrators, saying that they lacked a program, a leader and specific demands.

He may have misinterpreted them. People were clear in asking for the removal of Vladimir Churov (head of the electoral commission), the release of imprisoned political activists, registration of all political parties and clean elections.

In addition, some among the demonstrators seem to have special clout. One of them is Alexei Navalny, a popular blogger, who has extensively used the power of social networking to confront Putin and Medvedev’s power. Navalny acquired widespread notoriety when, as a response to being asked about his opinion of the United Russia party, he answered, “I think very poorly of United Russia. United Russia is the party of corruption, the party of crooks and thieves.” Few words resonated as much among protesting Russians as these last two nouns.

There was ample reason for that. According to a recent article in the New Yorker, Russia is one of the few countries in the world to slip consistently in Transparency International’s annual rankings of corrupt countries, and now ranks on par with Cambodia, Guinea-Bissau and the Central African Republic. As a confirmation of this fact, last October President Dmitry Medvedev stated that a trillion rubles — roughly $33 billion (equivalent to 3% of the country’s GDP) — disappears annually on government contracts.

In Russia, words and symbols often count more than reality. And Putin has repeatedly tried to use symbols to gather support for his policies.

In the meantime, the situation in Russia continues to deteriorate. Inflation and unemployment are close to 8%, and there is low purchasing power and increased capital flight. In addition, while the economy grew by a yearly average of around 7% between 2000 and 2007, it has declined since then. It is estimated that it will have grown by just 4% at the end of 2011. In addition to corruption and a sluggish economy, Russia is beset by high rates of crime.

Nobody can predict where the present demonstrations against the government will take Russians. So far, the government has made only minor moves as a response. One of them was making Vladislav Surkov, who had been deputy chief of the presidential administration and a man with wide-ranging powers, deputy prime minister in charge of economic modernization. But opposition forces believe that the proposed reforms are too little, too late.

Proud of their past, Russians are also eager to be able to express freely their political wishes. It is highly improbable that Vladimir Putin will relinquish his grip on power and allow for a repeat of the parliamentary elections. However, it was also considered unlikely a year ago that the Arab Spring would engulf the Arab world to the extent that it has.




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