Log In  |  Register Now  
 Home | Syndication Services | Media Features | Research Center | Archive | Contributors | About Us

To receive emails containing headlines and highlights from The Globalist,
sign up here.



Topic

Companies

Culture

Development

Diplomacy

Economy

Environment

Finance

Health

History

Markets

Media

Music

Politics

Religion

Security

Sports

Technology

Women

Youth


Region

Africa

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Latin America

Middle East

North America


Globalist Bookshelf

Best Books of 2012

Best Books of 2011


Editorial Staff

Contributors

Jobs & Internships


Subscribers to The Globalist's premium services can log in here:

Username:

Password:

Forgot your password?



 

Photo credit: Stephen Finn/Shutterstock.com

Globalist Perspective > Global Economy
America Could Do Worse than Be Like Europe
 

By Edmund L. Andrews | Thursday, November 15, 2012
 

If U.S. political leaders fail to deal with the looming "fiscal cliff" — which would result in simultaneous tax increases and cuts in government spending — the United States could easily find itself back in recession next year. Are U.S. policymakers ready, asks Edmund L. Andrews, to make tough fiscal decisions, as their counterparts in Europe have done, to avert a catastrophe?


uring the U.S. election campaign, Republicans loudly warned that President Obama would transform America into "Europe." You know: socialism, economic stagnation and a debt crisis. Greece! Spain!

Suddenly, it's Europe that is making headway on its debt problems. By contrast, the United States risks being as frozen as a deer in the headlights.
It was jingoistic, arrogant and generally fact-free. And judging from Obama's victory, it didn't have much traction with American voters.

Largely unnoticed, though, is that the United States and Europe may be in a role-reversal. Suddenly, it's Europe that is making headway on both debt problems and economic restructuring. By contrast, the United States risks being as frozen as a deer in the headlights.

Obviously, the eurozone is still in a world of hurt. Europe as a whole is in a modest recession, and it will take at least several more years before the likes of Greece and Spain get close to solid economic footing. Meanwhile, political leaders continue to dawdle over crucial unfinished business — such as some kind of fiscal union that will prevent future crises in the eurozone.

That said, real change is afoot. Right or wrong, those much-criticized austerity measures have had an impact. Budget deficits have declined sharply as a share of GDP in all of the crisis countries.

The Greek budget deficit has narrowed from a sky-high 15% of GDP in 2009 to about 8% in 2012, and may fall to less than 5% in 2013. Spain is on track to shrink its deficit by half from almost 12% of GDP to less than 6%. For the eurozone as a whole, deficits are heading down.

That's not all. Trade deficits are declining sharply and export competitiveness is climbing in the crisis countries. Greece, Portugal and Spain each had current account deficits higher than 10% of GDP in 2007, but the Greek imbalance is now below 6% and the other crisis countries are well below 3%.

Perhaps more striking is the decline in unit-labor costs — a key measure of productivity. Except for Italy, unit-labor costs have declined in all of the crisis countries since 2009. Meanwhile, labor costs have been climbing in Germany.

In other words, the competitiveness gap within Europe has narrowed sharply in just a few years. On one level, this shouldn't come as a surprise. When workers are desperate, they will work longer and harder for less.

Right or wrong, those much-criticized austerity measures have had an impact. For the eurozone as a whole, deficits are heading down.
On another level, however, this is a big achievement. These are, after all, highly unionized countries where it is hard to extract wage concessions.

And remember, governments couldn't boost competitiveness the old-fashioned way — by devaluing their currencies.

They were all locked into the euro, and effectively into German exchange rates. That was a big reason for the euro crisis in the first place. Yet the gap is narrowing anyway.

"It's very important for American audiences to realize that very important adjustments taking place," Philipp Hildebrand, a former chairman of the Swiss National Bank, told a recent forum on Europe at Stanford University.

Many will argue that EU austerity policies were misguided. They pushed countries into acute recessions, which inflicted misery on millions and aggravated short-term budget problems. What you can't argue, however, is that Europe hasn't taken painful action to fix its problems.

How does the United States compare? President Obama's forceful victory may improve prospects for a serious deficit-reduction deal — cuts in domestic discretionary spending, cuts in defense, changes to Medicare and other entitlements, and higher tax revenues.

Republicans are still shell-shocked from their recent electoral setback, but some of them are mumbling about a revenue-raising tax reform.

We'll see. In the past four years, Republicans have doubled down on their prescription for even bigger tax cuts, higher defense spending and obstructionism.

President Obama let them get away with it, and both parties now face a "fiscal cliff" — the expiration of Bush-era tax cuts and the remaining stimulus measures (such as the reduction in the payroll tax), as well as across-the-board spending cuts required under failed budget deal of 2011.

The U.S. economy is growing, but slowly. Productivity isn't anything to brag about — unit labor costs are up about 1% over the past year. Tax revenues, measured as a share of GDP, are still at or near record lows. And the long-term fiscal outlook, weighed down by soaring health care costs, is still unsustainable.

All in all, the United States could do worse than become "more like Europe."
















Find more of The Globalist's coverage on these topics:

Euro crisis
U.S. economy
U.S. politics



Join the discussion of this article on our Facebook page.

Follow The Globalist on Twitter.




Copyright © 2000-2013 by The Globalist. Reproduction of content on this site without The Globalist's written permission is strictly prohibited. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy

The Globalist claims full trademark rights to The Globalist name and logos.

1100 17th Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20036