|
 he
overall forecast for tonight and the next 15,000 days — up
to the year 2050 — is for persistent demographic accumulation,
especially in urban areas in the global south, declining levels
of reproduction, widespread aging, continuing broad bands of migration
streams and scattered mortality disturbances.
Turning to the details, the world is now
at an all-time high of 6.7 billion people. The six billion mark
was set in 1999, only 12 years after the earlier high of five billion
in 1987. The current level of accumulation is 78 million people
per year. This is lower than the record annual high of 89 million
set in the late 1980s. The seven billion mark is expected to be
reached in about 1,500 days, in 2011. The current global forecast
for mid-century is about nine billion people, but also possible
is a high of 11 billion — or a low of eight billion.
The planet’s human population is
growing at 1.2% per year, markedly lower than the all-time record
high of 2.0% set back in the 1960s. A more detailed look across
the map shows great variability, regionally and nationally —
as well as significant demographic turbulence and instability in
some areas. Nearly all of the demographic accumulation during the
coming 15,000 days — about 2.5 billion people — is expected
to occur among the less-developed regions. This accumulation amounts
to a 50% increase by mid-century, with some areas, especially in
Africa, expected to experience even higher levels of accumulation.
Today, six countries — India, China,
Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh and Indonesia — account for half
of the world’s yearly demographic accumulation. India’s
annual accumulation — one-fifth of global growth — is
equal to the combined totals for China, Pakistan and Nigeria. Most
of the more-developed regions, in contrast, will see little if any
demographic accumulation. The population of the European continent
peaked several years ago and is now declining. And many places,
such as Italy, Germany, Japan and Russia, are experiencing —
or will experience — demographic shortfalls.
The forecast is for Europe’s population
to be 10% smaller by mid-century, with the working-age population
likely experiencing a 25% decline. About the same is expected in
East Asia for countries such as Japan, Singapore and the Republic
of Korea. However, areas of notable exception to these demographic
shortfalls are Australia, Canada and the United States, where demographic
accumulations of 30-40% are expected by the end of the forecast
period, due in large part to continuing high streams of migration.
A depressed low fertility system covers
close to half of the world’s population, with European countries
and Japan experiencing the lowest recorded fertility levels, at
1.1 to 1.5 births per woman. While fertility highs remain in most
of Africa and parts of Western and South Asia, these levels are
falling, especially in urban areas. By the end of the 15,000-day
forecast, global fertility is expected to hover around the replacement
rate.
Global improvements in mortality are expected
to continue, with more people reaching advanced ages. However, scattered
mortality disturbances, heavy at times, will occur mainly in Africa
and Asia, with isolated disturbances in Eastern Europe. A rapidly
moving, high-pressure HIV/AIDS epidemic is causing a mortality tsunami,
ravaging much of sub-Saharan Africa and some parts of South and
East Asia.
Broad bands of migration streams, with
many immigrants entering or remaining illegally, will persist and
possibly intensify. The streams are moving primarily from the south
in a northerly direction and also from east to west. In addition,
there will be continued migration activity within countries, with
many seeking shelter in large cities, especially along the warmer
seacoasts.
s a result of lower fertility and longer lifespans, a widespread
aging front is rapidly sweeping across the globe. This front, beginning
in Europe and travelling from west to east, will result in extraordinary
shifts in age structures towards elevated ages. The numbers and
proportions of elderly will likely reach historically unprecedented
high levels. In many areas, one person out of three is expected
to be over age 65 — and the number of persons of working age
per one older person will fall sharply, from the current level of
about four to two or fewer by mid-century.
These shifts in age structures will exert
seismic pressures on social, economic and political conditions in
all countries and areas, especially in the north. The pressures
from this aging front are expected to precipitate political squalls
and produce unpleasant conditions for many localities and government
bodies.
It should be noted that the broad migration
streams noted earlier are not expected to eliminate the pressures
from the enormous and rapidly expanding aging front.
For some areas, replacement migration
can offset forecasted declines in the size of overall populations
— and of working-age populations. However, replacement migration
cannot realistically offset population aging because the numbers
involved are simply far too high.
The extended long-term forecast for the
next 15,000 days remains unsettled. While the outlook for some areas
is partly sunny and pleasant, unstable and uncomfortable conditions
are expected to persist in many regions and localities.
Troubling scattered clouds are also forming
on the horizon due to intensifying aging, mortality disturbances
and migration streams.
Joseph Chamie
is the director of research at the Center for Migration Studies
in New York City.
Last updated
September 17, 2009
|
A
healthy human brain contains about 100 billion nerve cells. 
Holding
global warming steady at its current rate would require a worldwide
60-80% cut in emissions. 
Women
account for 46% of worldwide MBA candidates. 
Patients
in the United States average 3.8 physician visits annually per capita,
fewer than the developed-world average of 6.8. 
In
Spain, nearly 37% of people under the age of 25 are unemployed — the
highest rate in Europe. 
Germany's
birth rate fell to just 8.2 per 1,000 people in 2008, the lowest in
the EU.
Smart
phones' share of the global market has doubled from 7.1% in 2006 to
15.4% in 2009. 
Hollywood
produces about 500 films a year — half the number from India
— but has ten times the sales.
At
least 600 million people watched Neil Armstrong take his "giant leap
for mankind" on July 20, 1969, when Apollo 11 landed on the moon.
There
are more than 1,500 active volcanoes in the world, including 70 in
the United States.