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Globalist Factsheet > Global Economy
A Global Currency War?

By The Globalist

As the world’s economies try to recover from the aftermath of the financial crisis, many are seeking advantages over their competitors by managing their exchange rates and intervening in the markets. Increasingly, there is talk of a “currency war,” as countries try to out-do one another to keep their economies growing. But is such talk overblown? Our Read My Lips takes a closer look.

Who coined the term "currency war"?

"We are experiencing a currency war. Devaluing currencies is a global strategy."

(Guido Mantega, Brazilian finance minister, September 2010)

"All countries, not only China and the United States, know that there is a currency war." (Dilma Rousseff, then-president-elect of Brazil, November 2010)

Is such talk of a currency war overblown?

"There are no real currency wars, just normal currency markets responding to events."

(Jim O'Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, November 2010)

Is "currency war" an appropriate term?

"The military metaphors need to be taken down a few notches, especially when debating economics. People need to realize that economics is not a zero-sum game in which one side's gains are the other side's loss. Economic conflicts generally hurt all sides, even the supposed winners."

(Nikolaus Piper, correspondent for The Atlantic Times, November 2010)

What's at the root of the problem?

"Global imbalances lie at the heart of the current recession. Failure to address them will abort recovery and lead to currency wars."

(Robert Skidelsky, British economic historian, November 2010)

Why is the prospect of a currency war so disturbing?

"Beggar-thy-neighbor currency devaluations proved ruinous for the global economy in the 1930s. Is the world setting off down the same slippery slope again?"

(Wall Street Journal "Heard" column, September 2010)

"The politics and economics of an assault on Chinese exchange rate policy are increasingly convincing. I no longer believe there is an alternative." (Martin Wolf, Financial Times columnist, October 2010)

Why would a currency war today be so dangerous?

"A 'currency war' would surely be a tragedy — not least because it would have massively adverse effects on innocent bystanders with relatively flexible exchange rates."

(Martin Wolf, Financial Times columnist, November 2010)

Why are tensions so high?

"The danger that a currency war breaks out is significant. There is a combination of factors — from unemployment in the United States to the undervalued Chinese exchange rate to fears in emerging markets that an inflow of capital will prove destabilizing and hurt their competitiveness — making it difficult for governments to effectively handle the situation."

(Uri Dadush, senior associate and the director of the International Economics Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, November 2010)

What is the world's main complaint with regard to the United States?

"QE2 is dollar negative. As such, it only exacerbates the skirmishes of the recent 'currency war' — pushing the world all the closer to the slippery slope of competitive devaluations, trade frictions and protectionism."

(Stephen Roach, non-executive chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, November 2010)

For its part, what should China do?

"In the end, a gradual currency appreciation is in China's interest because it will help rebalance its economy toward domestic demand and consumption. If China does this, it will alleviate the concerns about currency appreciation in other parts of the world, including the United States."

"There are no real currency wars, just normal currency markets responding to events." (Jim O'Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, November 2010)

(Uri Dadush, senior associate and the director of the International Economics Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, November 2010)

What is China's stance?

"Although the currency conflict between China and the United States is nothing new, and will definitely continue, it is very important for both sides that they find a way to achieve a win-win situation."

(Xiao Gang, chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank of China, November 2010)

In the eyes of some, who originally instigated the current "currency war"?

"The declaration of war — if there ever was a currency war — goes back to China's decision in the early 1990s to peg its currency to the dollar and resist the yuan appreciation that would have curbed its trade surplus."

(Laurent L. Jacque, professor of international finance and banking at the Fletcher School, Tufts University, December 2010)

Is the time ripe for a currency war with China?

"The answer looks increasingly to be yes. The politics and economics of an assault on Chinese exchange rate policy are increasingly convincing. The idea is, of course, deeply disturbing. But I no longer believe there is an alternative."

(Martin Wolf, Financial Times columnist, October 2010)

"QE2 only exacerbates the skirmishes of the recent 'currency war.'" (Stephen Roach, non-executive chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, November 2010)

What's Germany's take on the prospect of a currency war?

"I don't believe in such belligerent terms."

(Wolfgang Schauble, Germany's finance minister, November 2010)

Is Brazil hit hard by the so-called currency war?

"We are ready to take further measures if there is a new appreciation of the real. With the situation in Europe under stress, we expect to see a continuation of the currency war in coming months."

(Guido Mantega, Brazilian finance minister, December 2010)

What does Brazil view as the solution?

"All countries, not only China and the United States, know that there is a currency war. In this type of situation there is no individual solution. Brazil will insist that the G20 negotiate and develop sufficient controls over the global financial system to avert the crisis of 2008."

(Dilma Rousseff, then-president-elect of Brazil, November 2010)

And finally, will international cooperation alone solve the problem?

"Some international cooperation on exchange rates is necessary, but that alone will not do the job. At the national level — especially in the mature economies — there must be more emphasis on the long-term reduction of deficits as well as structural reforms and investments (such as in education, innovation and infrastructure) that raise productivity and growth."

(Arminio Fraga, chairman of Gávea Investimentos and a former president of the Central Bank of Brazil, January 2011)

 

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