Pakistan Vs. Indonesia: The Battle for Number One by The Globalist

The Globalist Quiz > Global Society Pakistan Vs. Indonesia: The Battle for Number One
By The Globalist \| Friday, October 15, 2010

India, China and the United States will still be the world’s three most populous nations in 2050. But there will be plenty of demographic change in other countries, given that nearly all future population growth will occur in developing countries. We wonder: Which country will be home to the world’s fourth-largest population in 2050? And which will be the country with the world's largest Muslim population?

Editor's Note: Click here to listen to this feature, which aired on public radio's Marketplace on October 8, 2010.

Answers:

A. Nigeria

B. Indonesia

C. Bangladesh

D. Pakistan

A. Nigeria is not correct.

Nigeria’s population is projected to almost double over the next 40 years — from a current level of 158 million to 289 million by 2050. At that point, it will be the world’s fifth-most-populous country, up three spots from its current rank of eighth.

Africa’s population as a whole is expected to double in size between 2010 and 2050 — from just over one billion to two billion. With the global population expected to rise from 6.9 billion to nearly 9.2 billion, Africa will thus account for about 43% of the global population increase over this period.

B. Indonesia is not correct.

As of 2010, Indonesia — with a population of 233 million — currently ranks as the world’s fourth-most-populous country. Its population is expected to grow by about 24% over the next 40 years. As a consequence, the country is expected to drop to sixth place in the 2050 population ranking, with a total of about 288 million people.

In addition, Indonesia will lose its current distinction as the world’s most populous Muslim nation.

C. Bangladesh is not correct.

Bangladesh, one of the world’s most impoverished countries, currently has 164 million people. Its population will grow by 58 million people — to a total of nearly 223 million people — by 2050, ranking seventh.

The population of India, Bangladesh’s South Asian neighbor, is forecast to increase from 1.2 billion to 1.6 billion in 2050. India is expected to overtake China as the world’s most populous country in 2028. The U.S. population, meanwhile, will stay in third place, growing from 318 million to 404 million.

D. Pakistan is correct.

Pakistan, currently the world’s sixth-most-populous country, is projected to increase its population from 185 million to about 335 million by 2050 — an increase of 81%, according to the UN Population Division.

Pakistan will thus pass Indonesia — and become the world’s fourth-most-populous country. It will also replace Indonesia as the world’s most populous Muslim country.