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The Globalist Quiz > Global Society
As Cars Go Global
 

By The Globalist | Saturday, October 06, 2012
 

A hundred years ago, automobiles were still a luxury item for the rich living in the Western world. Then cars gradually became a mass consumption item for all people living in industrialized countries. Now, the phenomenon has gone global. This Globalist Quiz asks: Which of the following statements about today's global automotive industry are true?


Answers:

A. The majority of sales now occurs in emerging markets

B. Sales in emerging markets are going to slow significantly

C. More automobiles were sold in rich countries over the past year

D. China no longer registers the world's steepest increases in sales

A. "The majority of sales now occurs in emerging markets" is correct.

Only ten years ago, sales of cars and trucks in all major emerging market countries were only a third of those in the developed West. Today, the volume of total annual sales in emerging markets is 20% higher.

That rapid growth is not just a result of catch-up demand, but also of broader economic developments. Specifically, GDP growth in emerging market countries has outpaced economic growth in developed markets by around four percentage points annually.

Mainly due to these factors, motor vehicle sales in emerging markets between 2000 and 2010 grew on average more than 15 percentage points faster than did sales in advanced countries.

B. "Sales in emerging markets are going to slow significantly" is correct.

Auto sales in the big emerging markets, such as China, India, Russia and Brazil, will continue to grow. But they will no longer yield the 20% annual growth in sales volume that characterized the 2000s boom era in those countries. Many people who could afford buying a car in these countries have done so by now.

As a result, car sales there are expected to grow only in mid-single digit rates. Sales are still likely to be higher than in developed markets, but no longer by a significant order of magnitude.

C. "More automobiles were sold in rich countries over the past year" is correct.

For at least a decade, annual sales for cars and trucks grew much faster in emerging markets than they did in developed countries. However, over the past year, sales growth in rich countries has outpaced sales in emerging markets.

This surprising development is due, in part, to one-off factors, such as special sales initiatives in Japan to revive the domestic car industry there. In addition, there was a new wave in automobile purchases in the United States, as the immediate effects of the financial crisis on households receded.

D. "China no longer registers the world's steepest increases" is correct.

In China, as in Russia, India and Brazil, car sales are currently growing around the 10% level from year to year. However, the world's strongest growth rates are to be found in Thailand and Indonesia, where auto sales grew by 60% and around 35%, respectively, over the past year.

Still, in terms of absolute numbers, given the huge size of the population in China, most new cars continue to be sold there. In 2011, over 18 million automobiles were sold in China. This compares to sales of close to 13 million in the United States, the world's second-largest market by sales volume — though not by revenue, where the United States still leads.


Editor's note: This Globalist Quiz is based on data and analysis provided by Jonathan Anderson of the Emerging Advisors Group.
















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