Holger Schmieding

Holger Schmieding is chief economist at Berenberg Bank in London. [United Kingdom] Follow him @Berenberg_Econ

How Big Is the Turkish Contagion Risk for Emerging Markets?

Contagion from the Turkish crisis to other emerging markets is not widespread.

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Options for Turkey

What the Erdogan government must do if it wants to avoid a “cold Turkey” economic shock.

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Italy and the Populists: Heading for an Even Hotter September?

It may take a further rise in Italian bond yields to remind the populist government’s leaders in Rome that their room for maneuver to operate with more debt is very limited.

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The Sad Irony of Brexit

Though UK voters have changed their tune on Brexit, there is little chance that it will be reversed.

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Six Ways How Trump Gets Trade and Europe Wrong

What Europe earns by selling goods to the U.S., it spends on licensing fees for U.S. technology and on U.S. services. Nothing unfair here.

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Germany: Will the CSU Really Topple Merkel?

The demise of the current Merkel government is not the most likely outcome yet. Both CSU and CDU would have too much to lose from it.

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Italy: The Master of Its Fate

If Italy’s government tames its radical instincts it could be allowed to get away with a few things. But if it is confrontational with the EU it will be heading for trouble.

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Will Merkel Fall?

If the CSU does not agree to any compromise on migration policy, Merkel’s government may fall apart.

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How Trump Gets It Wrong on Trade

The U.S. President seems to have the upper hand – for now. He doesn’t realize how his trade actions will backfire at home.

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Italy and the Euro

If a radical government in Rome plunges Italy into a deep crisis, it would still be an Italian crisis — rather than a “euro“ crisis.

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