Dealing in alternate realities is a tricky business. As is often noted, predictions are hard, especially about the future.
Is Italy’s crisis the new Greece? Is it just as bad? Or different? Could it take just as long to resolve it?
The U.S. current account deficit has widened to a degree that few had thought possible. Under Trump, it could become an explosive device for the world financial system.
The Economist’s recent feature on today’s Germany as a model for all of Europe was fake news. The signs of crisis – mainly a widespread complacency – are already visible in financial markets.
If Trump has his way, the liberal market economy of the post-war period is ending. The Trump world proudly and unapologetically embraces mercantilism.
The EU does not always need more members and deeper integration. Less could be more in the end.
The EU no longer lives in the orderly world of the Maastricht treaties, but in the world of a “populist monetary union.”
Why are Germans so enamored with their trade surpluses? When will they see it is against their own, well-understood self-interest?
Why the eurozone will become more stable — thanks to the Tsipras episode.