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David Apgar

Co-Founder, GoalScreen LLC

David Apgar is the author of Risk Intelligence: Learning to Manage What We Don’t Know (Harvard Business, 2006) and Relevance: Hitting Your Goals By Knowing What Matters (Jossey-Bass, 2008). Both books are based on ten years of best practices research for corporate finance teams as a managing director at the Corporate Executive Board.

Mr. Apgar is also the co-founder of GoalScreen LLC, a web-based prediction engine that works on smart-phones and browsers to simplify project and business performance management, predict complex results, and test stock and bond price models. He advises the World Bank Group and USAID on project monitoring and evaluation with a focus on finance-sector and advisory development work.

In recent years he has also managed the risk portfolio of BlueOrchard Finance, the largest for-profit microfinance fund. He previously worked for McKinsey, where he served insurance, reinsurance and capital markets clients as a consultant and engagement manager for three years and as a vice president for financial institutions in the early 1990s at Lehman Brothers.

Prior to that, Mr. Apgar was responsible for building a framework for bank security sales as Senior Policy Advisor to the U.S. Comptroller of the Currency.

Earlier, as staff economist to Senator Bill Bradley, he proposed a debt relief program for Mexico, which became the precursor to interest rate relief Brady bonds.

He holds a B.A. from Harvard University, an M.A. from Oxford University, and a Ph.D. from the RAND Graduate School.

Articles by David Apgar

China’s Curious Choice to Stand with Russia

In contrast to Putin, President Xi at least seems focused on the long game for his country. But why is Xi then supporting Putin's win-today, lose-thereafter venture?

June 6, 2022

The Supreme Court Vs. the US: Advantage China

The U.S.’s highest court provides a blueprint for exposing the United States to yet more viruses. Taiwan may well pay the price.

January 27, 2022

The United States as Number 2?

The Republican Party is utterly unprepared for the hard realities of relative U.S. decline vis-à-vis China.

August 4, 2021

Dateline US: Economic Power for the 99%

Economic shame haunts hard-working Americans. They ask themselves why they can’t do as well as their parents.

August 2, 2020

China: US Republicans’ Real Existential Threat

There is a mortal threat to the Republican Party on the horizon – but it’s China, not demography.

July 18, 2020

US: Demography Is Not Political Destiny

Are Republicans really doomed electorally because of the demographic changes underway in the United States?

February 26, 2020

Xi and Kim: The Transcript

How Donald Trump and the U.S.-North Korea summit are getting framed.

April 16, 2018

US: Any Real Checks and Balances Left?

Republicans have severely damaged many once-respected institutions, even before President-elect Trump came onto the scene.

November 11, 2016

Rethinking the U.S. Strategy Against IS in Syria

Why the U.S. government should use mercenaries in Syria.

May 26, 2015

The U.S. Strategy on IS in Iraq Has It Backwards

Why the U.S. government must rethink Iraq's territorial integrity.

May 25, 2015

The Yemen-Benghazi Connection: Politics Before People

When Republicans use American deaths in terrorist attacks as a political weapon.

March 29, 2015

Who Bosses Whom? Israel Vs. the United States

The problem today is that the United States has too much influence on Israel, not the other way around.

March 16, 2015

How to Succeed in Nuclear Talks With Iran

A nuclear deal with Iran would give the United States four major strategic advantages.

February 4, 2015

Petraeus and Serdyukov: Cupids or Stupids?

Does the ouster of Russia's defense minister signal the return of high defense spending?

November 16, 2012

Protecting the Nanny <s>State</s> Boss

Are Republicans intent on creating a U.S. nanny state, too — only substituting employers for the government?

October 11, 2012

Time to Break BP Up

Do BP's far-flung operations have the potential to create catastrophes worse than the oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico?

June 22, 2010

Two Crucial Tweaks to the Treasury Plan

What changes can improve Timothy Geithner's new plan to revive U.S. credit markets?

February 12, 2009

Rethinking Credit Ratings

How much blame for the global financial crisis should fall with rating agencies?

December 17, 2008

Out of Bretton Woods

What is the most effective way for the new U.S. administration to cooperate on international financial issues?

November 26, 2008

Microfinance and the Global Food Crisis

How will food price inflation affect the effectiveness of microfinance institutions?

May 1, 2008

In Search of the Global Customer

How can microfinance help solve one of the thorniest development problems facing the world today?

April 30, 2008

How to Build a Micro-Entrepreneur

What implications does Colombia's microfinance sector have beyond the country's borders?

April 29, 2008

Why Osama bin Laden Hates Microfinance

Has Osama bin Laden become the first prophet in a new line of Islamic Marxists? Or is he just another would-be dictator searching for specious arguments?

September 21, 2007

President Sadr: America’s Last, Best Hope?

Could the only remaining hope for a peaceful Iraq lie with Moqtada Sadr?

August 13, 2007

Redeeming Cheney

How can Vice President Dick Cheney salvage his historical legacy?

May 9, 2007

A Two-State Solution for Iraq? (Part II)

What would a two-state Iraq mean for the Middle East — and the world as a whole?

January 19, 2007

A Two-State Solution for Iraq? (Part I)

Could the best solution to the crisis in Iraq be to split the country in two?

January 18, 2007

Risk Intelligence and the Iraq War: Part II

How do you tell whether your adversary's experience is more relevant than yours?

September 14, 2006

Risk Intelligence and the Iraq War: Part I

Could the Bush Administration have done better in anticipating the violent aftermath of the invasion of Iraq?

September 13, 2006

Dateline Afghanistan: Border Security for Iran

What is really at stake with an unsecured border between Iran and Afghanistan?

June 30, 2006

Ugly Americans?

Where does one have to travel these days to find remarkable samples of the American spirit?

April 24, 2006

Wolfowitz and Sadr: Meeting in the Sand

Could a rebel cleric and the U.S. deputy defense decretary share the same beliefs?

October 22, 2004

Getting Beyond Governments

Should aid be targeted at governments — or at people?

September 23, 2003

Bin Laden's Letter to Saddam Hussein

What would Osama bin Laden have to say to Saddam Hussein?

July 22, 2003

The Dominoes — Where Will It End?

Did U.S. President George W. Bush's warning of Syrian WMD announce the next preemptive strike?

April 26, 2003

Meanwhile in Afghanistan

What does Afghanistan's development point out about Iraq's reconstruction?

April 15, 2003

The UN to Tony Blair’s Rescue

Can resolving Arab-Israeli issues present a compromise for a UN resolution?

March 18, 2003

When Attacking Iraq Weakens U.S. Security

Could a U.S. invasion of Iraq reduce U.S. security?

November 22, 2002

Google News — January 31, 2005

Read some of the most captivating news headlines of January 31, 2005 — from London, Washington, Jerusalem and Baghdad.

October 21, 2002

The Great Enron Opera

Is it time to record corporate scandals in the lexicon of U.S. culture?

July 9, 2002

U.S. Security Vs. U.S. Competence

Will the Bush Administration's poor decision-making and increasing recklessness destroy its credibility?

April 29, 2002

The Cave Man Letter

How realistic, do you think, is the strategic planning of Osama bin Laden's terrorists?

October 24, 2001