The AfD’s Thuringia maneuver caught Germany’s right-of-center parties flat-footed. The odds of a leftist coalition at the federal level in 2021 are rising.
It looks like CDU/CSU and SPD agreeing to stay together throughout 2020. But the risk that the SPD throws in the towel continues to loom large.
Germany’s center-left SPD will be led in the future by a little-known left-wing duo that is highly critical of the SPD’s role in Angela Merkel’s government.
Germany’s parties on the left are only a few percentage points short of a potential majority.
The centre-right CSU and the centre-left SPD lost the state election in Bavaria. This spells some trouble for Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU-SPD coalition in Berlin.
The demise of the current Merkel government is not the most likely outcome yet. Both CSU and CDU would have too much to lose from it.
Germany’s SPD has long seen Macron as a beacon of hope. But his stance on migration policy will greatly frustrate them – and rob Angela Merkel of her European cover.
If the CSU does not agree to any compromise on migration policy, Merkel’s government may fall apart.