The centre-right CSU and the centre-left SPD lost the state election in Bavaria. This spells some trouble for Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU-SPD coalition in Berlin.
The demise of the current Merkel government is not the most likely outcome yet. Both CSU and CDU would have too much to lose from it.
Germany’s SPD has long seen Macron as a beacon of hope. But his stance on migration policy will greatly frustrate them – and rob Angela Merkel of her European cover.
If the CSU does not agree to any compromise on migration policy, Merkel’s government may fall apart.
Why it is practically impossible for the SPD to reinvent itself.
With a new term for Merkel, Germany and Europe can breathe a sigh of relief.
As Germany and Italy decide the shape of their future governments, the EU is making slow progress. It is abandoning lofty schemes and determined to focus on people’s real problems.
Even if the SPD votes against joining a new “GroKo” government, the damage which prolonged political uncertainty in Berlin would inflict on Germany and Europe would be very limited.
Germany will continue to gradually slip from the top to the upper middle ranks of the growth league of major European countries. Its current golden decade will end in the 2020s.