Will Xi Jinping Follow the Paths of Putin and Trump?

Following the war of aggression by Vladimir Putin against democratic Ukraine and Trump’s war of choice against despotic Iran, there is widespread speculation about whether these wars might invite Xi Jinping to pursue his own territorial ambitions more aggressively.

This applies especially to a possible full-fledged military invasion of Taiwan.
 
Tempting, but smart?

Such a move might indeed appear tempting to China and its leader. After all, the U.S. military preoccupation with Iran would, at a minimum, complicate a coordinated U.S. response.
 
Nobody knows what China will do and what President Xi might contemplate, but we can make some educated guesses based on observations drawn from China’s history of economic policymaking as well as by looking at a rapidly changing military landscape.
 
Patience and focus pay off
 
It is almost a platitude to highlight the virtues of Chinese patience, foresight, caution and pursuit of ultimate goals rather than opting for potential, if not instant, short-term gratification.
 
For that same reason, China’s leadership is unlikely to be tempted to take on incalculable risks even when the barn doors seem wide open. Instead, China will do what it does best. It will play the long game.
 
China’s strategic interest is not served by headline-grabbing “excursions”. It is much better off continuing with the long grind of enhancing its economic power by staying the course as it advances from low-value added goods production to high-tech supremacy.

Advantage China
 
China is already well on the way to reach its key strategic goal: In the future, the global economic game will be shaped less by China needing to look for markets than other countries seeking to secure access to Chinese goods.
 
And this external demand will not be primarily driven, as many observers now assume, by China’s wealth in rare earth materials. It will be propelled by China’s continuously expanding and quite possibly soon-to-be unmatched technological superiority.
 
The unexpected decline of the other present (as well as the former) superpower
 
In the eyes of China’s leaders, Putin’s and Trump’s recent military excursions also have revealed a shocking reality. Both Russia and the U.S. are led by men who are gamblers. That is something which appears quite inconceivable in today’s China.
 
In addition, there is the a cautionary lesson: On paper and in terms of the destruction that materialized, Ukraine and Iran were completely outgunned by Russia and the United States.
 
And yet, brave Ukraine and the oppressive Iranian regime are posing serious questions about the military superiority of their superpower respective adversaries.
 
The world’s long-time superpowers are still powerful, but less so. They face smaller adversaries that have swarms of bees stinging them with speed and precision, making victory infinitely more expensive to them.
 
Ukraine and Iran-made drones are extremely cheap and can be quickly produced in the thousands. Meanwhile, the military hardware of Russia and the United States is hugely expensive and has very lengthy production cycles. Already there is concern, for example, that the U.S. is running out of missiles.

China most likely paid attention
 
To meet similar challenges on its own end, China will continue to upgrade and diversify its military hardware and software.
 
Ever keen to expand its technological knowhow, the Chinese leadership undoubtedly aims for the development of a “sophistication gap” when compared to other large powers by integrating this hardware with AI now and, within the next five years, with the so-far inconceivable power of quantum computers.  
 
What about Taiwan?
 
But for the moment, China is forewarned.  True, given Trump’s blatant adventurism, Xi might no longer lose that much in the field of international public opinion if he started a war of aggression against Taiwan tomorrow.
 
But Xi will probably have learned the painful lessons disregarded by Putin and Trump. He will not assume that conquering Taiwan will be a military cakewalk.
 
He is much better off to use his not-so-soft “soft” power to pursue a strategy aimed at nudging Taiwan to become China’s comrade without joining the Communist Party outright.
 
Pursuing this approach is much easier now for Xi, given that the appeal of the U.S. as a model of freedom, democracy and rule-of-law has been greatly tarnished.
 
Conclusion
 
The U.S. is wounded and weakened. Its brand may be irreparably damaged.  It is an exhausted superpower that has lost its magic touch, while Russia has long lost that claim beyond its massive nuclear arsenal.
 
Meanwhile, China will likely sit tight, mind its own business and enjoy the benefits of the catastrophic errors of its main competitor, the United States, and its own sidekick, Russia.