Birth Rates in Africa: Not Following Asia
More contraception would help Africa educate the young and govern itself.
April 17, 2014
1. In 1970, there were 360 million Africans, accounting for a tenth of the world’s population.
2. If fertility in Africa were to drop roughly in line with Asia’s 1970-2000 trajectory, there would be 2.1 billion Africans by 2050.
3. If Africa continues on its current path, there will be 2.7 billion Africans — equal to a quarter of the global population by 2050.
4. Africa’s population could almost triple in 40 years.
5. With an extra half-billion people, Africa will find it hard to educate the next generation of young people.
6. By 2050, there could be twice as many Africans below 14 years of age as there are now.
7. If population growth and urbanization continue at their current pace, Africa’s big cities could become ungovernable.
8. Kenya’s Kinshasa could have 30 million people by 2050 and Nigeria’s Lagos 40 million.
9. Africa’s big cities could become larger and harder to manage than China’s giant cities are now.
10. In most developing countries, 60% of women of childbearing age have access to modern contraceptives. In much of Africa, the rate is only 20%.
From African demography, Fertility treatment by The Economist
If Africa continues as now, there will be 2.7 billion Africans—a quarter of the global population by 2050.
By 2050, there could be twice as many Africans below 14 years of age as there are now.
In most developing countries, 60% of women have access to modern contraceptives. In Africa, the rate is 20%.
The Other Data Revolution
April 14, 2014