Just The Facts

From Hispanic ‘Baby Boom’ to ‘Baby Bust’?

A major demographic shift is underway in the U.S. Hispanic community. This could well reshape future U.S. population growth. Is this permanent or temporary?

Takeaways


  • The non-Hispanic birthrate in the US declined by 5% and Hispanic birthrate by 25% between 2006-2013.
  • According to the 2008 U.S. Census estimates, the U.S. population by 2050 was expected to reach 439 million.
  • Economic insecurity has a major impact on Hispanic women with regard to expanding a family.

1. Over the past quarter-century, Hispanic Americans have had a high fertility rate (children per woman) compared to all other major U.S. demographic groups.

2. High fertility rates among Hispanics have been a major force in overall U.S. population trends. But over time, it has declined very noticeably.

3. In 1990, non-white Hispanic women had 3.0 children each on average – considerably higher than the rates of 2.5 among African-Americans and 1.9 among non-Hispanic whites.

4. By 2010, however, the Hispanic fertility rate was down to 2.4 children per mother, while other major groups ranged from 1.8 to 2.1.

5. The biggest change occurred recently. The non-Hispanic birthrate in the United States declined by 5% in the 2006 to 2013 time span.

6. The Hispanic birthrate dropped much more dramatically, by 25%, over the same period, according to research by IHS Economics.

7. Growing economic insecurity has had a major impact on Hispanic women with regard to starting or expanding a family. Quite a few younger women have chosen continued or further school enrollment over motherhood.

8. A change in the birth rate of these proportions is unlikely to be reversed, even once the effects of the recession have worn off.

9. This trend change has profound effects on the overall U.S. population growth estimates. According to U.S. Census estimates made in 2008, the U.S. population by 2050 was expected to reach 439 million.

10. By 2014, the U.S. Census Bureau projected the 2050 population to be only 398 million – almost 10% smaller.

The upshot

Over one-third of the 41 million person reduction in the future size of the U.S. population comes from a reduced projection for Hispanics.

Sources: The Globalist Research Center, Pew Research, University of Nebraska at Omaha, Fusion, U.S. Census Bureau

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