Just The Facts

How Nigeria “Lost” 162 Million People

The United Nations has recently trimmed its forecast for Nigeria’s future population growth.

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Takeaways


  • Nigeria's fertility rate has fallen to 5.74 in recent years.
  • Nigeria’s decline by 162 million people is equal to the population of Bangladesh.
  • Africa’s 2100 population is now forecast to reach nearly 4.4 billion.

1. In 2012, the UN projected that Nigeria’s population would reach 914 million by the end of the 21st century.

2. The UN’s 2015 forecast of 752 million is 162 million people lower, or about 20%.

3. This lowered projection is based on the country’s fertility rate having fallen more rapidly than expected.

4. In the earlier population projection, the UN had expected Nigeria’s fertility to remain above six children per woman during the early decades of the 21st century.

5. The fertility rate has actually fallen to 5.74 in recent years.

6. This quicker initial drop in the fertility rate, small as it seems, will have massive repercussions for Nigeria’s population total — if it is sustained over the next 85 years.

7. Nigeria’s decline by 162 million people is equal to the population of Bangladesh, currently the world’s eighth most populous country.

8. However, for the African continent as a whole, fertility rates are expected to fall less quickly than previously estimated.

9. This means that Africa’s 2100 population is now forecast to reach nearly 4.4 billion.

10. That total number is about 200 million more than the UN’s 2012 forecast, despite the simultaneous decline in Nigeria’s projected population by 162 million.

Source: Data by UN Population Division; data analysis by The Globalist Research Center

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