The U.S.-Mexico-China Manufacturing Triangle
Trump appears to be tilting at windmills with his trade policy. It is largely U.S. manufacturers who depend on inputs from Mexico.
April 8, 2026
Mexican manufacturing wages remain roughly 40% lower than Chinese manufacturing wages and 88% lower than those in the United States.
There are now more than 200 Chinese manufacturing and infrastructure investments in Mexico.
Roughly 20% of the value of Mexican exports to the United States consists of Chinese content.
Mexico now has a sizeable trade deficit with China, even though it has a large bilateral trade surplus with the United States. This is in part due to the duty-free export platform it provides into the United States.
In January 2026, there were 12.59 American manufacturing workers compared to 12.74 million in February 2020, before COVID-related manufacturing job losses began.
Notably, by December 2024, at the end of the Biden administration, U.S. manufacturing employment had climbed again to reach 12.69 million.
However, in the first 11 months of Trump’s second term (February–December 2025), the United States has lost 91,000 manufacturing jobs.
Meanwhile, Mexico has added roughly a total of 700,000 manufacturing jobs since 2020.
From 2022 to 2024, U.S. auto sector employment averaged more than one million jobs, a level not seen since the early 2000s.
However, in the second half of 2025, U.S. auto industry employment began to decline to a level of 951,000 auto manufacturing jobs in December 2025.
Source: Rethink Trade / American Economic Liberties Project
Takeaways
Roughly 20% of the value of Mexican exports to the United States consists of Chinese content.
Mexico has added roughly a total of 700,000 manufacturing jobs since 2020.
Mexico now has a sizeable trade deficit with China, even though it has a large bilateral trade surplus with the United States.
There are now more than 200 Chinese manufacturing and infrastructure investments in Mexico.
