Just The Facts

Demographics of a Post-Brexit Europe

After Brexit is completed, the EU will lose one of its biggest contributors to favorable demographics.

Credit: Alessandro Grussu www.flickr.com

Takeaways


  • The UK’s foreign-born population and their children will reach 31.2% of the overall population by 2061.
  • The UK's high fertility rate, plus immigration, has made it one of the fastest-growing populations in the EU.
  • The EU’s overall population growth will be negatively affected without the inclusion of UK figures after Brexit.

1. The UK’s fertility rate (at 1.8 children per woman) is one of the highest in the EU. It ranks behind only France (1.96), Ireland (1.92) and Sweden (1.85).

2. The EU average is just 1.58. Germany (1.5), Italy (1.35) and Spain (1.33) are all well below the EU average.

3. In the past, immigrants to the EU tended to have more children than native-born residents.

4. This is no longer generally true (as in Germany), or the rates are at about parity (as in Netherlands).

5. Immigration is still a key force driving UK population increases, however.

6. Under Eurostat projections, the UK’s foreign-born population and their children (born after 2007) will together reach 31.2% of the overall population by 2061.

7. Immigrants were 11.9% of the UK population in 2011.

8. The country’s high fertility rate, in addition to immigration, has made the UK one of the fastest-growing populations in the EU.

9. The UK population is projected to grow by about 18% — from the current level of 65 million to 77 million by 2060, according to forecasts the UN made in 2015.

10. The EU’s overall population growth will likely be negatively affected without the inclusion of UK figures after Brexit is completed.

Sources: The Globalist Research Center, Eurostat

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