Not Only China’s Economy May Beat the U.S.’s By 2050
By 2050 it is possible that the U.S. economy will not just be smaller than China’s — but India’s as well.
September 28, 2015
1. By mid-century, China will almost certainly have long secured its spot at the top of the global economic league table.
2. However, by 2050 it is possible that the U.S. economy will not just be smaller than China’s — but India’s as well.
3. India launched its market-based reforms a little more than a decade after China, in 1991.
4. As of 2014, India’s $7.3 trillion economy was the world’s third-largest, measured in terms of purchasing power parity.
5. However, India’s economy is at present only a little over 40% as large as the U.S. and Chinese economies.
6. While India’s growth has not been as strong as China’s over the past two decades, its growth rate is expected to outpace China’s in the coming decades.
7. To realize this potential, India will need to sustain its reform policies and increase investment in infrastructure, education (especially women) and better governance.
8. According to PricewaterhouseCoopers, the Indian economy is expected to be about 2% larger than the U.S. economy by mid-century.
9. Even though India’s economy may exceed the U.S.’s by mid-century, when measured on a PPP basis, it will then still be about 30% smaller than China’s.