Emissions Control and Electric Cars in 2020
The short-term prospects for electrification of light passenger vehicles globally are still small.
1. The IEA has projected that ownership of electric passenger cars will grow to slightly more than 10 million by 2020, just a few years from now.
2. However, the current size of the global electric car fleet is considerably smaller as of 2016: 2 million electric cars.
3. The Paris Climate Agreement reached in 2015 aspired to rein in global emissions by 2030, just 10 years after the world is likely to reach 10 million electric cars.
4. At the moment, even if every country met its nationally determined contribution (NDC) to reducing carbon emissions, the world is still not on track to hold emissions flat, let alone cut them.
5. Just to get to zero emissions growth, per the Paris Agreement, a projected further annual remainder of 160 million metric tons of CO2 emissions would need to be eliminated.
6. This would require the equivalent of replacing 60 million cars each year (!) with electric cars, and only if their electricity came from non-fossil sources.
Sources: The Globalist Research Center and the International Energy Agency