Why Nobody Cares About Iraq
Are most countries involved in Iraq acting solely out of self-interest?
Let’s look at the eight most prominent countries, those with the greatest stake in Iraq. As it turns out, their oft-preferred “deep concerns” are nothing more than exploitation of Iraq’s vulnerabilities and resources.
First, the United States: Trapped in a quagmire, dammed if it leaves and dammed if it stays, the Bush Administration is now desperately seeking a way out that allows it to claim a modicum of success — while securing the flow of oil that was and continues to be the main factor in the United States’ strategic calculus.
The Democratic U.S. Congress and many Americans have lost patience with this misadventure and want the United States out. Never mind that the war has plunged Iraq into a merciless civil war, while unleashing the forces of extremist Muslim radicals committed to fight the United States and the West literally to death.
From the U.S. perspective, it is just too bad for the Iraqis that their country has also become the breeding ground of a new generation of terrorists.
Next, the United Kingdom. It is on the receiving end of the other half of a bad deal. The prospect of gaining anything from Britain’s reckless foray into Iraq has diminished along with the fading star of Tony Blair.
The British, who evidently learned nothing from their first occupation of Iraq after World War II, want to bring their troops home. Now, after they helped create the horrendous situation, they are quite ready to leave Iraq and — finally learning the lessons of history — leave the Iraqis to their own fate.
To China, the Middle East is the most fertile ground for the expansion of its global influence. China’s unquenchable thirst for oil and gas to meet the demands of an exploding economy make Iraq and Iran critical to its long-term strategic supplies of energy.
With deliberation and sophistication, the Chinese are gradually chipping away at U.S. influence in the region, using the Iraqis’ plight and the consequences of the war to their advantage.
Russia’s primary concern is about those Russians who are looking for lucrative oil and gas deals with whichever Iraqi government can deliver these prizes. In addition, the Russians want to recover billions of dollars in contracts they signed with Saddam Hussein that were lost to the war.
Russia could not care less whether Iraq is run by a democratic or totalitarian regime — and will transact with the devil as long as they can secure their profitable deals while enhancing their regional influence.
To France, the Iraqi tragedy is just an unfortunate episode for the poor Iraqis. The French salivate over the Bush Administration’s dismal failure but, like the Russians, seek to regain billions in contracts lost with the demise of the Hussein regime.
“Quel dommage” that Iraqis and Americans are dying. What matters most to “la grande nation” is the feeling of vindication about France’s objections to the Iraq war.
For Iran, Iraq is the greatest windfall. Not in their wildest dreams could the Iranians have imagined that Iraq, their great and proud enemy, would be handed to them on a silver platter and by their staunch adversary, the United States.
Now, although involved in heavy trade with Iraq, Iran’s main goal is to promote its own agenda. This centers on arming Iraqi Shiite militias, which have no scruples about killing Iraqi Sunnis while pretending to be Iraq’s saviors.
For Tehran, the goal is to exert every ounce of its increasing influence over Iraq’s internal affairs to secure its long-term strategic ambitions.
Saudi Arabia, terrified of Iran’s growing regional influence and the potential of Sunni-Shiite regional conflict, wants to stem the Shiite tide at all costs. The Saudis do not want to be engulfed should the civil war escalate beyond Iraqi borders.
Fearing for their very existence, the Saudis seek to empower the Sunni Iraqis in order to decrease the threat of a Shiite-perpetrated genocide which, from their perspective, is far more plausible once the Americans leave.
For Syria, the war in Iraq has only increased its own economic difficulties. Although there was no love lost between Saddam Hussein and the Assad regime, extensive trade crossed the borders between the two nations.
Syria could benefit again from a stable Iraq and, at a minimum, repatriate the more than one million Iraqis who have found refuge there. Syria, however, has no incentive to be overly helpful as long as the United States both occupies Iraq and threatens regime change in Damascus.
So who really cares about Iraq? It seems that only the Iraqi people and their government can save their country.
To do so, they must first accept that there is no military solution and therefore all efforts must be focused on reconciliation, including the following measures:
1) Passing an oil law that distributes oil revenues equitably among the Iraqi people,
2) Allowing the majority of former Ba’athist members to rejoin the government, which will alleviate the financial plight of millions of Iraqis and dramatically reduce sectarian conflict,
3) Establishing a political dialogue with the insurgency with the objective of empowering the Sunnis to create their own entity within the a federal system,
4) Granting universal amnesty to those who have been involved in unlawful acts of violence,
5) Releasing all prisoners except hard-core terrorists,
6) Opening up the ranks of internal security and the military forces to Sunni recruits.
Sooner or later, the U.S. troops will leave Iraq. It is up to the Iraqis to find the way to live with each other in peace and begin to rebuild their lives and their country. The bitter truth is nobody else really gives a damn.