Establishing a European Unemployment Reinsurance Fund carries the risk that it might be used to circumvent unpopular national-level decisions on structural reforms.
German fiscal bliss: Debt to GDP ratio can fall to 60% this year.
A German as head of the European Commission? If this is unstoppable, leave the German man who is lined up for the post in Berlin. Instead, send a powerful German woman to Brussels.
Is Turkey entering a deep financial crisis just as Greece exits one?
It may take a further rise in Italian bond yields to remind the populist government’s leaders in Rome that their room for maneuver to operate with more debt is very limited.
A deep Turkish recession could lead to more migrants leaving Turkey for the EU. Currently more than three million Syrian refugees are living in Turkey.
The EU does not always need more members and deeper integration. Less could be more in the end.
If Italy’s government tames its radical instincts it could be allowed to get away with a few things. But if it is confrontational with the EU it will be heading for trouble.
The EU no longer lives in the orderly world of the Maastricht treaties, but in the world of a “populist monetary union.”