Dealing in alternate realities is a tricky business. As is often noted, predictions are hard, especially about the future.
The European Commission exposes Italy’s wishful thinking.
Is Italy’s crisis the new Greece? Is it just as bad? Or different? Could it take just as long to resolve it?
Five Star leader Di Maio still has not learned that comments which may go down well during an election campaign can easily backfire for a senior politician in office.
It may take a further rise in Italian bond yields to remind the populist government’s leaders in Rome that their room for maneuver to operate with more debt is very limited.
What lessons does the revival of Fiat hold for all of Italy?
The EU does not always need more members and deeper integration. Less could be more in the end.
If Italy’s government tames its radical instincts it could be allowed to get away with a few things. But if it is confrontational with the EU it will be heading for trouble.
The EU no longer lives in the orderly world of the Maastricht treaties, but in the world of a “populist monetary union.”