If Italy’s government tames its radical instincts it could be allowed to get away with a few things. But if it is confrontational with the EU it will be heading for trouble.
If the CSU does not agree to any compromise on migration policy, Merkel’s government may fall apart.
The U.S. President seems to have the upper hand – for now. He doesn’t realize how his trade actions will backfire at home.
If a radical government in Rome plunges Italy into a deep crisis, it would still be an Italian crisis — rather than a “euro“ crisis.
The saga of a dynamic Germany and a sclerotic Italy does not reflect the historical record.
Populists in power, like Five Stars and the Lega in Italy, can do serious damage. In the case of Italy, the key risks are long-term rather than immediate.
What is the middle ground that both Germany and France can agree on to move economic and financial reforms in the EU forward?
The more the U.S. abstains from imposing new barriers to imports from the EU, the more may the EU support U.S. efforts to change Chinese trade and investment practices.
Though the populists have triumphed in Italy, examples show that populists often abandon their most dangerous demands and their euro scepticism in the pursuit of power.
To advance their prospects of finding partners, both 5Star and Lega have ditched the most dangerous part of their erstwhile agenda. But significant risks remain.